“Bear Bets” are actual wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is definitely making.
The U.S. Open will probably be held at Oakmont Nation Membership, in Plum, Pennsylvania, for a report tenth time.
Sports activities followers will lock in for the historic occasion (the primary U.S. Open befell in 1895) from June 12-15.
There’s simply one thing extremely particular about this PGA main, and there may be enjoyable available for all — notably in relation to laying a couple of wagers.
So, let’s soar into the motion.
Patrick Cantlay to complete high 10, high 20
Patrick Cantlay vs. Tommy Fleetwood
Patrick Cantlay vs. Justin Thomas
Patrick Cantlay to win with out Scottie Scheffler/Rory McIlroy/Bryson DeChambeau/Jon Rahm
Patrick Cantlay has been an excellent U.S. Open participant, posting 4 straight top-15s, together with what would have been a win on this market final 12 months, as he completed third behind Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau. We’ll see if there’s some luck within the dart throw right here at 25-1. I’ll additionally take Cantlay head-to-head in opposition to Justin Thomas, who has only one top-30 end in a significant since profitable the PGA in 2022, and Tommy Fleetwood, who’s all the time overbet on and overvalued in majors. Cantlay’s driving and iron play combo ought to give him an opportunity at par — and presumably birdie — on most holes, and par is a good rating this week.
PICK: Patrick Cantlay (+280) to complete high 10, (+130) to complete high 20
PICK: Patrick Cantlay (+105) vs. Tommy Fleetwood
PICK: Patrick Cantlay (-115) vs. Justin Thomas
PICK: Patrick Cantlay (+2500) to win with out Scheffler/McIlroy/DeChambeau/Rahm
Conners has a run of 4 straight top-25s in majors, starting with a top-10 at Pinehurst final 12 months. Straka did end second within the 2023 Open Championship, however his main report is fairly spotty outdoors that — he’s missed each cuts this 12 months and in six of his final 12 majors. Being runner-up in 2023 is certainly one of three top-20s he has from his 16 majors. Conners is tenth in SG. Off-the-Tee, and placing the ball within the fairway will probably be important this week.
PICK: Corey Conners (-110) vs. Sepp Straka
Russell Henley to complete high 20
Russell Henley vs. Ben Griffin
Poor first rounds in each the Masters and PGA took Henley out of the event this 12 months, however the U.S. Open has been the place Henley has usually performed his greatest in majors. He’s been within the high 15 three of the final 4 years, and whereas Ben Griffin has been enjoying some terrific golf these days, that is fairly the indoctrination to main championship golf, so I am curious — and skeptical — as to how nicely that performs out.
PICK: Russell Henley (+150) to complete high 20
PICK: Russell Henley (+100) vs. Ben Griffin
Jason Day to overlook the minimize
Ryan Fox vs. Jason Day
Look, Jason Day is just not somebody anybody desires to “root” in opposition to. However there are undoubtedly well being issues right here. For Day to overlook the Memorial, he should have one thing fairly painful occurring. A pair balls in that thick tough may definitely agitate a balky again and wrist. U.S. Open-type programs haven’t been good for Day these days as he’s missed the final two and 4 of the final six cuts. Fox is available in off a win, a top-20 on the Memorial and a top-30 on the PGA, so he’s undoubtedly the in-form participant.
PICK: Jason Day (+120) to overlook the minimize
PICK: Ryan Fox (-110) vs. Jason Day
Taylor Pendrith to complete Prime 30
Taylor Pendrith vs. Min Woo Lee
Taylor Pendrith has been among the finest drivers on tour this 12 months and, regardless of placing troubles, he’s posted 4 top-10s and a pair of top-5s, together with on the Quail Hole final month. Min Woo Lee is somebody I maintain anticipating to make a little bit of a leap, nevertheless it hasn’t occurred but — primarily due to poor iron play. Since profitable the Houston Open, Lee hasn’t been higher than forty ninth in any of his 5 occasions, together with an MC at Quail Hole.
PICK: Taylor Pendrith (+160) to complete high 30
PICK: Taylor Pendrith (-115) vs. Min Woo Lee
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen to make the minimize
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen vs. Matt Wallace
Neergaard-Petersen simply missed the minimize on the PGA, however performed nicely within the different two PGA Tour occasions he participated in, almost profitable the Puerto Rico Open. Wallace has missed the minimize in additional than half the Tour occasions he’s performed this 12 months, so regardless of the most important outlier top-20 within the PGA for Wallace, I’ll go along with the extra constant Neergard-Petersen.
PICK: Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson (-120) to make the minimize
PICK: Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (-110) vs. Matt Wallace
Xander Schauffele to complete Prime 20
Xander’s run of 12 straight main top-20s ended at Quail Hole when Schauffele completed T-28. He hasn’t been totally wholesome this 12 months, however seems to totally embrace the situations and what to anticipate from Oakmont this week. The psychological battle is a giant a part of main championship golf and the very fact Schauffele has that down, it is time to begin a brand new top-20 streak.
PICK: Xander Schauffele (-120) to complete high 20
Xander Schauffele sits fifth on the oddsboard at +2200 to win the U.S. Open 2025 in Oakmont, Pennsylvania. (Picture by Andy Lyons/Getty Photos)
Minimize Line Over 147.5
There’s +8 as a minimize line? Yeah, it may simply occur, correctly sunny Thursday and Friday, making issues quick and agency — which means the greens ought to be insanely fast and tough. I desire this minimize line wager to a profitable rating prop, as there may be rain anticipated over the weekend, which could soften issues up some. No rain, we’re taking a look at +4 or in order a profitable rating. Rain would imply -4 is feasible, so let’s simply count on stunning carnage the primary two days and a few large names to overlook the minimize.
PICK: Minimize Line (+100) Over 147.5
Rory McIlroy to overlook the minimize
Talking of lacking the minimize — the place is Rory’s head proper now? Because the driver controversy on the PGA, McIlroy has been a multitude, ending T-47 on the PGA and lacking the minimize in Canada. He additionally skipped out on the Memorial and didn’t give Jack Nicklaus a heads-up, after which reportedly shot 81 in a follow spherical at Oakmont. After, it regarded wish to me, he had this misplaced look to him. We had been all rooting for him to complete off the profession slam at Augusta, however since then it has been all downhill for Rory, who may not see the weekend right here.
PICK: Rory McIlroy (+250) to overlook the minimize
Justin Thomas to overlook the minimize
I discussed earlier how JT has only one main top-30 since profitable the PGA in 2022. He’s additionally missed the minimize in a half dozen majors since, together with every of the final two U.S. Opens. His propensity to overlook the green — 121st in driving accuracy, 94th SG Off-the Tee — means he might be within the thick stuff quite a bit. And that might be the kiss of dying right here.
PICK: Justin Thomas (+175) to overlook the minimize
Min Woo Lee to overlook the minimize
Lee has struggled in each majors this 12 months and has missed the minimize in two of his final three. Lee’s putter is one of the best a part of his sport, but when he isn’t hitting greens, then surviving on one-putt pars is just not the way in which to go right here.
PICK: Min Woo Lee (-110) to overlook the minimize
Brooks Koepka to overlook the minimize
Koepka has performed 4 rounds in two majors this 12 months. Do the maths — which means he’s missed the minimize in each, with 74 being his greatest spherical. We’re a few years eliminated now from Koepka being the must-play in majors, as he hasn’t posted a top-25 for the reason that 2023 U.S. Open. His final seven majors: Minimize, Minimize, T-43, T-26, T-26, T-45, T-64.
PICK: Brooks Koepka (+105) to overlook the minimize
Max Greyserman to make the minimize
Greyserman’s three majors for the reason that begin of final 12 months have all been greater than respectable — T-33, T-32 and T-21 at Pinehurst final 12 months. He’s posted a spherical within the 60s in every of them. He’s missed simply two cuts in 17 occasions this 12 months, making the minimize in each majors. His distance off the tee ought to assist him make it 3-for-3 in main cuts this 12 months.
PICK: Max Greyserman (-110) to make the minimize
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has coated sports activities for almost three many years. Whereas faculty soccer has been his focus, he additionally enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such occasions. Chris not too long ago received the inaugural Circa Soccer Invitational and completed within the Prime 10 of the Golden Nugget Soccer Contest. He is a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Bear in mind, “The much less you wager, the extra you lose whenever you win!” Observe him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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