With the 2025 NFL season simply across the nook, it is time to assess how profitable — or how unsuccessful — groups will probably be this upcoming season.
There are two groups whose win totals stood out to me particularly: the San Francisco 49ers and the New York Giants.
And based mostly on what we learn about these groups from final yr and their offseason strikes, I am able to throw down some money on these Niners and Giants.
Let’s check out what I feel their regular-season win totals will probably be.
San Francisco 49ers Over/Beneath 10.5 wins
The 49ers’ schedule, together with some optimistic harm regression, has Kyle Shanahan’s squad making an attempt for the 1-seed this season. The 49ers gained six video games final yr, regardless of a roster crammed with accidents. Star operating again Christian McCaffrey performed in simply 4 video games. Broad receiver Brandon Aiyuk appeared in simply seven video games. All-Professional left deal with Trent Williams performed solely 10 video games.
On protection, security Talanoa Hufanga additionally performed in simply seven video games, and defensive deal with Javon Hargrave made it onto the sector for under three video games. The checklist goes on and on.
The 49ers have been unlucky with their harm luck final season. Harm luck is a type of issues that we see regression to the imply the next season. If a workforce is beat up one season, they typically come again wholesome the next yr. The 49ers’ roster is top-heavy, however when wholesome, it’s arduous to not marvel on the expertise.
They’ve a top-tier operating again, left deal with, broad receivers, go rush, center linebacker and a superb cornerback. The Niners boast extra playmakers than most of their opponents, which is a vital consider predicting win totals. Add in quarterback Brock Purdy, who’s strong, predictable and environment friendly within the Niners’ well-above-average offense.
The 49ers’ schedule this season units them up for fulfillment. They’ll play their six divisional video games and can possible be favored in at the very least 4, possibly 5, particularly once they host the Rams. The 49ers — and the remainder of the NFC West — should play each South divisions of their rotational schedule. These divisions are the worst on paper within the NFL. Their sport at Houston is without doubt one of the few matchups the place they could be underdogs this season.
For the reason that 49ers completed in final place within the division final yr, they spherical out their schedule with three video games in opposition to groups that additionally completed in final place in 2024. This consists of the Cleveland Browns, New York Giants and Chicago Bears. The 49ers ought to find yourself being favored in 15 of their 17 video games.
The mixture of San Fran’s expertise, some harm regression to the imply and its favorable schedule implies that squad ought to win at the very least 11 video games this season.
PICK: San Francisco 49ers Over 10.5 wins
Will Brock Purdy lead the 49ers to the Tremendous Bowl this yr?
New York Giants Over/Beneath 5.5 wins
The New York Giants have three substances that I typically view as the explanation why groups go Over their win whole. The primary, as talked about above, is harm regression to the imply.
The second is the results of one-score video games. The Giants have been 1-8 in these video games final season, and the next season that tends to reverse. It is unlikely a workforce is 8-1 in one-score video games, however they shift from 1-8 to someplace round 4-5 or 5-4. That’s an enormous distinction within the total results of a season.
The third issue is a quarterback improve. I’m not excessive on Russell Wilson typically, however he’s nonetheless higher than the Giants’ quarterback state of affairs from final season.
So, the Giants meet many of the standards I’d use for selecting a workforce to go Over their win whole.
Nevertheless, they’ve one of many hardest schedules within the NFL, and I’m not sure they’re going to come out of October with greater than a single win. In truth, they’d be lucky to be favored in a couple of sport this season.
Right here’s the primary two months of their season: They open at Washington and Dallas, then host the Chiefs and Chargers. After that, a visit to New Orleans, adopted by two video games in opposition to the Eagles, with the Broncos sandwiched in between. They begin November with the 49ers, then face the Bears, Packers and Lions — oh my! They’re going to be an underdog in each sport, and presumably a choose in New Orleans.
In order that poor file in shut video games could not even matter this season, as they may discover themselves down by double digits late in video games. After they begin sluggish, the teaching employees could shortly flip to Jaxson Dart, who is not able to be a starter but. New York’s season goes to spiral uncontrolled shortly. So I’m going with the Giants Beneath 5.5 wins.
PICK: New York Giants Beneath 5.5 wins
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 totally different groups. He began at proper deal with for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior yr. Comply with him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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